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Curated by Marc Reverdin |
Food security at risk: disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz call for global mobilization
When conflict erupted in the Middle East, initial attention focused on surging energy prices. However, food security is quickly becoming a focal point of attention, given the Strait of Hormuz's structural role in global agrifood supply chains.
Around 20 million barrels of oil per day transit the Strait, and prices have already risen roughly 20-35%. For fertilizers, about 30-35% of global urea and 20-30% of ammonia exports originate in or transit the region. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) endeavored to quantify these risks and found that, and, addressing the UN on 25 March, FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero warned that "farmers are facing a dual cost shock: more expensive fertilizers alongside rising fuel costs affecting the entire agricultural value chain."
With urea prices having already surged well beyond FAO's projected 15-20% for the first half of 2026, producers are already reducing fertilizer application or switching to less input-intensive crops, “adjustments that risk nonlinear yield declines in regions operating near subsistence thresholds”, Torero noted.
The countries most exposed include Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and India in Asia; Egypt and Sudan in North Africa; and Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the impact on Brazil is particularly worrisome, as a major agrifood powerhouse, lower fertilizer use risks translating into major yield losses and global price volatility. If the conflict extends beyond three months, Torero warned, "the impacts will be significantly more serious; it will also impact significantly the next planting season."
In this context, Torero called for "urgent, coordinated international action." The private sector has a key role to play in context. This was notably shown in 2022, when industry associations and companies that publicly quantified the scale of the disruption early helped accelerate political mobilisation at the G7 and G20. France's FARM initiative and its private-sector arm, the Global Business for Food Security (GBFS) coalition, translated that momentum into formal commitments on supply, logistics, and access for vulnerable markets.
Moreover, the France-led Save Crops Operation went further, using the Africa Trade Exchange (ATEX) platform, developed by the African Union, and the UN Economic Commission for Africa, to pool fertilizer demand across African importers, convening CEOs ahead of the G20 Bali summit to coordinate supply responses.
Despite structural differences between the two crises, these types of initiatives are replicable and demonstrate the importance of deep partnerships between the private sector and multilateral fora. The latter set the governance framework and provide financing, while the private sector provides operational knowledge and the concrete experience, fundamental to their success.
At Reverdin Consulting, we accompany our clients in their engagement with multilateral institutions and global initiatives, equipping them with the tools needed to foster meaningful relations grounded in both data and real-world experience. As the world grapples with increasing food security, it is more important than ever for the private sector to mobilise the international fora.