Air War in Ukraine: The Industrial Race for Interceptors

The period was dominated by the intensification of the air war in Ukraine and the allies' race against the clock to strengthen Kyiv's defense capabilities. Facing the threat of Russian missile salvoes of unprecedented scale, Ukraine formalized a massive order of nearly 1,000 Patriot missiles, while the United States initiated a scaling-up of its own industrial base to replenish stocks. This dynamic constituted the central focus of the 36th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein format).

In parallel, hybrid warfare manifested tangibly with a Russian attempt to sabotage undersea cables in the Arctic, thwarted by a joint NATO operation. On the industrial front, European defense is advancing unevenly: Sweden confirmed a strategic order for four French frigates, but the European Union had to suspend a project for a high-level defense panel in the face of divergences among the major member states.

Facing Russian Escalation, Ukraine and Its Allies Mobilize Defense Production

The period was marked by a critical intensification of the Russian air threat and a structuring capability response from Ukraine and its partners. Ukrainian intelligence services warned that Russia is now preparing to intensify its combined missile salvoes (Defense News, 20/08). This threat is aggravated by interceptor stocks for the Patriot systems being at an all-time low in Ukraine. Against this backdrop, Russian strikes continued to inflict numerous civilian casualties. The intensification of Russian strikes has also affected humanitarian aid: the United Nations is considering relocating its supply warehouses underground after ten of them were hit this year, including a major World Health Organization (WHO) warehouse this month (Defense News, 15/09).

In response, Ukraine has undertaken a major effort to strengthen its air defense. According to elements not confirmed by the corpus, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reportedly announced an effort to acquire Patriot systems with the help of its allies. It nonetheless emphasized the multi-year nature of these deliveries and a significant funding shortfall for its capability programs, calling on Western partners to accelerate their support. This appeal was echoed by the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Mark Rutte, and constituted the heart of the discussions at the 36th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), known as the Ramstein format, held in early September (Ukraine Defense Contact Group, 07/09; C-SPAN, 08/09). Preparatory discussions between the Ukrainian minister and his counterparts confirmed this overriding priority.

In parallel, an underlying trend is being confirmed: the offshoring and transfer of technologies to Ukraine to sustain its war effort over the long term. * Missile production: The United Kingdom transmitted classified designs for components of the SCALP cruise missile to Ukraine, adding to a production license already granted by France. This decision, which follows the lifting of range restrictions in May 2025, prompted threats of "semi-military" retaliation from Moscow (Defense News, 26/08). * Drone production: The Finnish group Patria and the Ukrainian manufacturer General Cherry signed a letter of intent to jointly develop and produce drones in Finland, confirming a trend toward direct industrial cooperation between European and Ukrainian companies (Defense News, 24/08).

This support effort is running up against the capacity of Western defense industrial bases. In the United States, the Department of Defense (DoD) took steps to address this by signing framework agreements with Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics to significantly increase production of THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 interceptors in order to replenish its own heavily drawn-down stocks (Defense News, 31/08). A first sign of this acceleration was General Motors (GM)'s delivery of its first critical components for Patriot interceptors to Lockheed Martin, less than a month after the signing of their agreement (Defense News, 17/09).

Hybrid Warfare Intensifies, from Undersea Cables to the Baltic Sea

The confrontation in the "gray zone" saw significant developments. A Russian attempt to sabotage undersea communication cables in Arctic waters was thwarted by NATO members in the spring of 2026. The operation, linked to the GUGI directorate of the Russian navy, was countered by a joint action of NATO allies (Defense News, 10/09). This event illustrates the persistent threat to critical infrastructure, documented by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which published a database on Russian sabotage operations in Europe (IISS, 26/08). The IISS emphasizes that the vulnerabilities of defense industrial supply chains, which can be weaponized, extend well beyond raw materials and include components, chemicals, and manufacturing processes (IISS, 26/08).

In another sign of tension, a press source reported that Russia reportedly fired on a military aircraft of a NATO member country over the Baltic Sea, raising questions about a potential activation of Article 5, although the details of the incident remain to be confirmed (Geo News, 15/09).

European Defense Between Industrial Cooperation and Political Deadlocks

On the capability and industrial front, the period was marked by contradictory signals. On one hand, Sweden took a major step in strengthening its defense posture by signing a $4 billion contract with France's Naval Group for the acquisition of four frigates. The ceremony took place on August 31 in the presence of President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. This order, which is set to triple the air defense capacity of the Swedish navy, will see a first delivery in 2030 and constitutes a major success for the French defense industry and bilateral cooperation (Defense News, 31/08). The September 13 legislative elections in Sweden, the first since the country's accession to NATO, were moreover held in this context of a redefinition of its defense and deterrence policy (IISS, 13/09).

On the other hand, the construction of a unified European defense policy suffered a setback. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, was forced to cancel the launch of a high-level advisory group on European defense. This decision follows opposition from Berlin, Paris, and Rome, illustrating the persistent difficulties in aligning the strategic visions of the major member states, despite Ms. Kallas's repeated calls for Europe to stop "outsourcing" its security to the United States (Defense News, 08/09).

American Uncertainties and New Global Strategic Ambitions

American defense policy continues to be the subject of internal debates with transatlantic implications. A bipartisan group of American lawmakers expressed serious concerns regarding the disbandment of a specialized US Army drone unit, less than a year after its creation. They see it as a signal of "uneven and inconsistent" support for Europe and Ukraine and requested explanations from the DoD before September 21 (Defense News, 03/09). These internal tensions add to uncertainties over the sustainability of funding: an IISS analysis estimates the probability that the defense budget for fiscal year 2027 will be adopted on time at only 34%, reviving the specter of budgetary deadlocks with potentially serious consequences for the allies (IISS, 11/09).

This perception of reduced American predictability is contributing to strategic realignments. In Iceland, a referendum on relaunching European Union accession talks was held on August 29, a move largely motivated by the need to guarantee the country's security in a context of uncertainty over American commitment (justsecurity.org, 25/08).

Elsewhere in the world, Japan is continuing to strengthen its security posture. Japan is moreover continuing to strengthen its security and intelligence apparatus.

To Watch

• Response from the US DoD: The United States Department of Defense must provide explanations to Congress before September 21, 2026 regarding the disbandment of its specialized drone battalion.
• Follow-up to the Ramstein meeting: The coming weeks will see the concretization of the commitments made at the 36th UDCG meeting, notably on the provision of air defense equipment to Ukraine.
• US defense budget: Negotiations in the US Congress on defense appropriations for fiscal year 2027 will be a key indicator of the reliability of American support for its allies.
• Results of the Icelandic referendum: The political aftermath of the August 29 referendum on possible EU accession will be worth observing, as a barometer of the perceived influence of the United States in the Arctic.