Fossil Fuel Decline: Geopolitics Acts Where Political Will Falls Short

The period has been marked by a notable acceleration of the transition in the heavy-transport sector, with converging analyses indicating an economic tipping point toward electrification far sooner than anticipated. This momentum contrasts with the trajectory of global fossil-fuel emissions which, paradoxically, are expected to decline in 2026—not as a result of deliberate climate action, but because of oil and gas supply disruptions tied to persistent geopolitical tensions.

On the diplomatic front, preparations for COP31 are highlighting the contradictions of several major players, including the host countries, whose domestic policies are deemed inadequate relative to their stated ambitions. In the United States, the judiciary has halted an attempt by the executive to extend the operating life of a coal-fired power plant. Finally, Canada has positioned itself as a central player in discussions on financing the transition, seeking to attract global capital for its energy and mining projects while facing criticism over the lag in its own climate targets.

COP31 Preparations Reveal Tensions Between Stated Ambitions and National Policies

As attention turns to COP31, the climate policies of Turkey and Australia, its future co-presidents, are drawing increasing criticism. According to press analyses, both countries continue to develop fossil-fuel projects, undermining the credibility of their leadership on the international climate stage (theenergymix.com, 24/09). Nevertheless, on 18 September the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) reaffirmed its joint commitment with Turkey to climate action, a sign that channels of cooperation remain open despite the criticism (Agence Française de Développement, 18/09).

Against this backdrop, several initiatives are seeking to shape the COP31 agenda. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) organised an international dialogue to promote air-quality solutions ahead of the summit (UNECE, 24/09). In addition, civil-society actors are pushing for the issue of clean cooking to be integrated into the electrification agenda (Climate Home News, 24/09).

More significantly, a session held during New York Climate Week on 24 September sought to align the strategies of the major tropical-forest regions (the Amazon, the Congo Basin, the Coral Triangle) ahead of COP31. The aim is to formalise the concept of "Fossil Free Zones" so that they become policy tools capable of being embedded in national roadmaps for the energy transition and the fight against deforestation (Carbon Tracker Initiative, 15/09).

Fossil Fuel Decline Amid Political Resistance and Geopolitical Shocks

An analysis by Carbon Brief published on 16 September estimates that global greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil fuels are set to fall in 2026. This decline would be a direct consequence of the oil and gas supply disruptions triggered by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than the product of proactive climate policy (theenergymix.com, 17/09). On the economic side, a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) deems a $43.7 billion pipeline project unprofitable on Canada's west coast, owing to weakening global oil demand linked to the rise of electric vehicles (theenergymix.com, 01/09).

The transition, however, faces significant political resistance. * In the United States, a federal court dealt a setback to the administration by ruling in mid-September that the Department of Energy (DOE) had overstepped its authority in ordering the continued operation of a Michigan coal-fired plant beyond its scheduled closure date (theenergymix.com, 25/09). * In Germany, the electoral victory of the far-right AfD party in Saxony-Anhalt, which rejects climate action, has raised fears of long-term consequences for the country's energy transition, even though the immediate effects are judged limited (theenergymix.com, 09/09). * In Canada, the province of New Brunswick is considering lifting its moratorium on hydraulic fracturing for natural gas, in order to stimulate its economy and strengthen national energy independence (theenergymix.com, 27/08).

Electrification Accelerates, Driven by Heavy Transport and Emerging Markets

The heavy-truck market is poised to electrify faster than expected, reaching a commercial tipping point in the early 2030s. According to a Carbon Tracker report of 27 August, this transition will be driven primarily by falling total cost of ownership, itself propelled by plummeting battery costs and economies of scale. China is identified as a major potential exporter of this technology (Carbon Tracker, 27/08). The think tank will host an online briefing on 29 September to discuss these findings and present the Investor Declaration on Zero-Emission Freight, in connection with the revision of the European Union's CO₂ standards (Carbon Tracker, 09/09).

This electrification trend is a major lever for transforming emerging economies. A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) stresses that faster electrification could allow India to significantly reduce its exposure to energy imports by 2035 (IEA, 24/09). For its part, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) noted on 21 September that while renewables are gaining ground, their deployment must still accelerate massively to meet the global target set for 2030 (IRENA, 21/09).

Canada Seeks to Reconcile Climate Ambitions with Economic Imperatives

Canada was at the centre of energy news this month, with Prime Minister Mark Carney hosting the Investment Summit. The event, which brought together 250 leading investors in Toronto, aimed to showcase 167 domestic projects, including energy infrastructure and data centres for AI (theenergymix.com, 11/09). According to an analyst at Catalyst Climate Capital, the summit succeeded in placing clean energy at the heart of investment discussions (theenergymix.com, 24/09).

In this context, several strategic announcements were made: * The Carney government introduced a bill to fast-track the approval procedures for major projects, notably by creating "national interest" zones (theenergymix.com, 22/09). * A preliminary agreement was signed between Ukraine's state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz and the Canadian Kino Aski LNG project, illustrating the drive to diversify European energy supplies (theenergymix.com, 16/09).

This pro-investment policy nonetheless runs up against criticism of the country's climate record. An analysis by 440 Megatonnes concluded that Canada was more than 20 years behind its 2030 emissions target (theenergymix.com, 11/09). Experts also point to the contradictions of a national electrification strategy which, although aiming to double grid capacity, would need to triple the share of clean energy to be effective over the long term (theenergymix.com, 03/09). Finally, Canada is being urged by activists to intervene against a Canadian company that is reportedly seeking, with the support of the Trump administration, to obtain a deep-sea mining licence, thereby circumventing international law (theenergymix.com, 27/08).

To Watch

• 29/09/2026: Online briefing by Carbon Tracker and Transport & Environment on the electrification of heavy trucks and transition risks for investors.
• During 2027: Start of operations at OMV's new green-hydrogen plant in Austria, with a capacity of 23,000 tonnes per year.
• Upcoming: Decision by the German Federal Cartel Office regarding Hochtief's acquisition of transmission-infrastructure company Autmatec.
• Upcoming: Decision by the government of New Brunswick (Canada) on a possible lifting of its ban on hydraulic fracturing for natural gas.