Strategic Autonomy and Own Resources: Europe Accelerates Amid Uncertainty

This month, European policy is marked by a dual acceleration on budgetary and defence fronts, driven by the Franco-German axis but confronted by mounting political uncertainties. France has launched a diplomatic offensive to establish new own resources to finance a future EU budget estimated at 2,000 billion euros, seeking to avoid an increase in national contributions. Concurrently, the recognition of the necessity for strategic autonomy has materialized through defence initiatives, against a backdrop of reassessing American commitment and record public support. The Union's foreign policy remains, however, a point of friction, notably on the Israeli-Palestinian question where significant divisions persist among member states, placing the Commission under pressure. Finally, a major political alert emerges in France with the formalization of Marine Le Pen's candidacy for the presidential election, prompting European capitals to prepare for a possible challenge to European integration at the core of the project itself.

Budget and Economic Sovereignty: France Manoeuvring for New Own Resources

Facing the prospect of the next multiannual financial framework (MFF), France is actively seeking consensus on new revenue sources for the European Union. The administration of President Emmanuel Macron has been tasked with identifying new EU-wide taxes capable of financing the next budget, which could reach 2,000 billion euros (Politico EU). The objective is twofold: to avoid an unpopular increase in national contributions and to deprive far-right parties of an angle of attack on the cost of Europe. This initiative, which aims to generate up to 400 billion euros over seven years, follows the failure of negotiations on a previous own resources package in July 2025. France's Minister for European Affairs, Benjamin Haddad, emphasized that these new resources were a prerequisite for accepting future common expenditures, notably for defence, technology and the environment (Politico EU).

This political approach is in line with economic analyses advocating for strengthening European sovereignty. In a notable speech on 10 July, the Governor of the Banque de France, Emmanuel Moulin, called for deepening internal integration to close the EU's growth lag behind the United States, which amounts to 15 percentage points of GDP per capita since the financial crisis (Jacques Delors Institute). He recommended the swift establishment of a Savings and Investment Union (SIU) to mobilize European savings, which exceed those of the United States, towards the massive investment needs of the Union, notably in R&D where the annual gap with the United States is 0.7% of GDP.

Defence and Foreign Policy: Europe Facing Its Responsibilities

The debate on strategic autonomy and European defence has reached a new threshold, fuelled by an unstable geopolitical context and an evolving American posture.

An unprecedented dynamic for European defence

A groundswell is sweeping through public opinion: support for strengthened European defence is reaching record levels, offering a window of opportunity for leaders to pursue structural reforms (ECFR). This awakening occurs as the United States reassesses its global priorities, forcing Europe to question the durability of the current security architecture and the role of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (ECFR).

In this context, several initiatives testify to a determination to act. Paris and Berlin are endeavouring to energize EU foreign policy (Jacques Delors Institute). On the operational front, France, in coordination with the United Kingdom and other allies, has declared itself ready to deploy within days a naval mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea lane for global energy supply (Politico EU).

Persistent divisions on the Middle East and the effectiveness of sanctions in question

Despite this determination to assert itself, the EU remains deeply divided on its policy towards Israel. A growing group of member states is pressing the European Commission to propose trade restrictions on products from illegal Israeli settlements. While the economic impact would be limited, the political and legal stakes are considerable, and President Ursula von der Leyen is accused of temporizing (Politico EU). These tensions crystallized with Israel's decision to sever "all contacts" with High Representative Kaja Kallas following her statements on apartheid (Euractiv.com).

Moreover, the very effectiveness of the EU sanctions regime is being called into question. A legal analysis highlights a structural flaw: individuals and entities win their cases for annulment of sanctions before EU courts in Luxembourg, but the Council can reinscribe them on the list on new grounds, stripping the judicial protection of substance (European Interest).

Industrial and Digital Policy: Between Sovereignty and Transatlantic Tensions

In the wake of the "Technology Sovereignty Package" presented in early June, the EU continues to define its digital strategy, marked by a desire for regulation and friction with the United States. President Emmanuel Macron called on democracies worldwide to collaborate to regulate artificial intelligence (AI), criticizing Washington's "strictly nationalist" turn following the suspension of access by foreign nationals to certain American AI models (European Interest).

However, the implementation of the European strategy faces its own challenges. The appointment of a technology sector CEO as the new EU special envoy for AI raised significant conflicts of interest questions, casting doubt on the impartiality of the Commission's action (EU Observer). The stakes are high, as global trade is transforming into a tool of geopolitical coercion, obliging the EU to be "open but not naive" and to diversify its value chains (Jacques Delors Institute).

Institutions and Governance: Alerts and Internal Frictions

The integrity of European institutions has been tested once again this month. A warrant for arrest has been issued against former European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos in the context of the Qatargate corruption scandal, reviving concerns about the influence of foreign lobbies (Politico EU).

Within the European Parliament, political tensions have manifested themselves. President Roberta Metsola used her prerogatives to override the opinion of MEPs and force the advancement of negotiations on the controversial law against child sexual abuse material online (Politico EU). Furthermore, the rallying of an MEP from the Renew Europe group to a bill on expulsions, praised by the far right, illustrates the fault lines running through the central political groups (EU Observer). On a more consensual note, Parliament reached a final agreement with the Council to strengthen the rights of air passengers, notably guaranteeing compensation for delays of more than three hours and faster reimbursements (European Parliament).

Climate: The Urgency of Adaptation Amid Rising Costs

The impact of climate change is increasingly felt on public finances. A new estimate puts the annual bill for climate adaptation in Europe at 70 billion euros, a figure that is soaring due to increasingly frequent and intense heat waves and forest fires (EU Observer). This pressing economic reality sheds light on the inadequacy of current EU emergency financing mechanisms and fuels calls, notably from think tank Bruegel, to modernize them urgently.

France Political Watch: The Le Pen Hypothesis, a Structural Issue for the EU

A national political development with potentially seismic implications for the Union has caught the attention of chancelleries. Despite a conviction for misappropriation of European funds confirmed on appeal on 7 July, Marine Le Pen has formalized her fourth candidacy for the French presidential election. With her appeal in cassation having a suspensory effect, she remains eligible. Analysts such as those at ECFR emphasize that European decision-makers must now prepare for a possible "abrasive and conflictual" presidency in Paris, which would seek to call into question the foundations of European integration (ECFR).