AI Governance: The Fragmented Race Between Industry, States and Multilateral Institutions

This month, the multilateral agenda was dominated by an intense contest to define the rules of global artificial intelligence governance, with competing initiatives launched in San Francisco, Shanghai and Rome. While South Korea is positioning itself as a global hub for the sector through strategic partnerships, the United Nations and the Vatican have warned against a concentration of technological power and the associated ethical risks, illustrating a fragmentation of regulatory approaches.

In parallel, the NATO summit in Ankara offered a reprieve to European allies but underscored persistent doubts about long-term American commitment and the need for Europe to strengthen its own defense. The period was also marked by significant diplomatic tensions, notably ahead of the UN General Assembly, and by a trend toward the proliferation of "outside-the-framework" diplomatic formats for crisis management and trade partnerships, at times bypassing traditional institutions.

The Race for AI Governance Accelerates on Several Fronts

The period was marked by intense diplomatic activity aimed at shaping the future of artificial intelligence (AI), revealing competing visions and a race for influence.

South Korea made a notable breakthrough by positioning itself as an "indispensable global hub" for AI. At the San Francisco AI Summit, President Lee Jae Myung unveiled the "San Francisco Declaration on AI," committing his country to steering a global vision for the responsible development and sharing of the technology (Korea Herald, 25/07). This ambition materialized through major partnerships between Korean giants Samsung Electronics and SK Group and leading American technology firms, with a collaborative value estimated at $950 billion (Korea Herald, 26/07). President Lee also met with the leaders of Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia and Broadcom to attract investment (Korea Herald, 22/07).

Faced with this industry-led momentum, multilateral institutions voiced their concerns. In Shanghai, UN Secretary-General António Guterres firmly warned against the monopolization of AI by "a handful of powers," which would risk deepening global inequalities (ONU Info, 17/07). This concern is shared by the major financial institutions: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fears that entire regions could be left behind, while the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned of a risk of economic collapse (FAZ - Aktuell, 09/07).

A third path, focused on ethics and disarmament, emerged from a meeting convened by the Vatican in Rome. Nobel laureates, academics and former leaders signed a declaration on the intersecting dangers of AI and nuclear weapons, calling for assurances that the technology be subject to "responsible, ethical and democratic" rules (@CFR_org, 23/07).

These various initiatives illustrate a fragmentation of AI governance. On one side, a pragmatic, industry-driven approach led by the United States and its technology allies such as South Korea, embodied by the proposal from the CEO of Google DeepMind to create a new standard-setting body led by the United States (@CFR_org, 23/07). On the other, a call for inclusive multilateralism championed by the UN. A recent study nonetheless tempers the notion of hegemonic dominance, showing that AI capability is in fact broadly distributed across regions, suggesting a multi-regional global configuration for future diplomatic influence (OpenAlex — Relations internationales, 29/07).

NATO Summit in Ankara: A Precarious Relief for Europeans

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit held in Ankara was a moment of reassurance for the allies, but it revealed structural concerns about the future of transatlantic security.

According to an ECFR analysis, European leaders were relieved by the reaffirmation of U.S. support for the alliance, despite President Donald Trump's past critical rhetoric (ECFR, 17/07). Another analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) notes that, despite the verbal attacks, the alliance demonstrated a strong "quiet reality" and a definite resilience (@CFR_org, 13/07).

However, the summit also highlighted unresolved "fundamental questions about Washington's long-term commitment," pushing Europe to have to strengthen its own defense capabilities while maintaining NATO as the pillar of collective security (ECFR, 17/07). This debate was reflected in national positions on defense budgets. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni asserted in Ankara that Italy must increase its defense spending in a balanced manner, but dismissed as "ridiculous" the idea that this would come at the expense of social budgets such as healthcare (Adnkronos, 08/07).

Diplomatic Tensions Ahead of the UN General Assembly

The preparation for the upcoming UN General Assembly (UNGA) is marked by a sharp diplomatic controversy. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced that he was exploring the legal possibility of arresting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should he travel to New York for the event, describing him as a "war criminal" (Fox News, 18/07). This move relies on the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in November 2024. The initiative, which raises complex questions of diplomatic immunity and local authority, was immediately condemned by the U.S. ambassador to the UN.

This incident illustrates the growing politicization of multilateral forums. In a different vein, a recent study reveals shifting dynamics of influence within the UNGA itself. It shows that while countries indebted to China tend to align their votes with Chinese positions, this influence diminishes considerably when these countries default on their debt, with their positions then moving closer to those of the United States (OpenAlex — Relations internationales, 21/07). This signal indicates that the influence gained through "debt diplomacy" is not unconditional.

Furthermore, the UN Security Council held a debate on conflict prevention, which was to be chaired by the Foreign Minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, with concrete recommendations expected from Secretary-General António Guterres to strengthen mediation and the judicial settlement of disputes (ONU Info, 23/07).

Regional Blocs and "Outside-the-Framework" Initiatives Reshape the Multilateral Landscape

An underlying trend is confirming itself: the proliferation of diplomatic initiatives operating on the margins of, or in complement to, the major global institutions.

This phenomenon is particularly visible in crisis management. The creation by the United States of a "Board of Peace" for Gaza, whose charter claims the "courage to depart from failed approaches and institutions," is analyzed as a form of "legal experimentation" that bypasses UN mechanisms, akin to the London Committee during the Spanish Civil War (ejiltalk.org, 10/07).

In Africa, leaders gathered at the African Union (AU) Extraordinary Summit on health in Accra sounded the alarm: cuts to international aid and limited domestic investment threaten decades of progress in the fight against HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (Africa News, 23/07). Six months after hosting the first G20 summit in Africa, South Africa, for its part, is striving to translate the Johannesburg Declaration into concrete outcomes for the continent, notably on debt and critical minerals, while signing a $1.5 billion loan with the World Bank for its infrastructure (Mail & Guardian, 09/07; Africa News, 21/07).

In Asia, South Korea is pursuing particularly active diplomacy to diversify its partnerships. The country formally joined the Partnership for Investment and Trade for the Future (FIT-P) alongside Thailand and Peru (Korea Herald, 17/07), sealed a "golden era" in its relations with Mongolia (Korea Herald, 09/07), and began a historic visit to Argentina to revive trade negotiations with Mercosur and forge a partnership on lithium (Korea Herald, 31/07).

Finally, the competition for influence extends to the creation of new institutions. China, Chile and Belgium are vying to host the secretariat of the high seas treaty (BBNJ), whose first Conference of the Parties (COP1) is scheduled for January 2027. The choice of headquarters is seen as a major strategic stake in steering the future governance of the oceans (dialogue.earth, 31/07).

To Watch

• Korea-Mercosur Negotiations: The outcomes of the meeting between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Argentine President Javier Milei, which began on 31 July, will be decisive for the future of trade negotiations between South Korea and the South American bloc.
• Ocean Governance: The decision on where to host the secretariat of the high seas treaty (BBNJ) will be a key indicator of the new balance of power in global governance. COP1 is expected in January 2027.
• UN General Assembly: The high-level session in September will be closely scrutinized, against the backdrop of the threat of a major diplomatic incident surrounding the possible arrival of the Israeli Prime Minister.
• Conflict Prevention: The concrete recommendations from the UN Secretary-General, expected to follow the Security Council debate of 23 July, could outline new approaches to preventive diplomacy.