Rome Under Pressure: The Electoral Law Threatens the Survival of the Meloni Government

The political and social climate in Italy is extremely tense. The period has been marked by a series of security alerts, including death threats against ministers and opposition lawmakers, a warning from US intelligence services about the risk of a Russian drone attack, as well as growing friction between the executive and the judiciary.

On the economic front, rising fuel prices are triggering protests in the agriculture and fishing sectors, while the Minister of the Economy is sounding the alarm over the deteriorating outlook. The cohesion of the majority is being tested by internal controversies, and the risk of a government crisis looms over the upcoming confidence vote on the electoral law in early October.

Latent Political Crisis Surrounding the Electoral Law

The government has tied its future to the vote on the new electoral law, nicknamed "Stabilicum." During the Council of Ministers, Giorgia Meloni warned that if the government were to be defeated in the confidence vote in the Chamber of Deputies, the "consequences would be inevitable," brandishing the threat of a resignation and early elections (Il Messaggero). The cabinet authorized the use of the confidence motion on three key articles of the text. The final vote in the Chamber is scheduled for early October, making it a major political deadline for the stability of the executive.

A Political Climate Poisoned by Threats and Controversies

The period has been marked by a notable deterioration in the political climate. The Minister of Education, Giuseppe Valditara, received a letter containing a bullet and threats on 17 September (ANSA, 17/09). This "cowardly act of intimidation," in the words of Giorgia Meloni (Il Foglio, 17/09), was unanimously condemned by the political class. A few days later, on 25 September, a death-threat letter was sent to the mayor of Bologna, Matteo Lepore, and to MEP Stefano Bonaccini, both members of the Partito Democratico (PD), an act described as "very serious and unacceptable" by the party secretary, Elly Schlein (La Repubblica, 25/09).

Tensions have also flared within the right. A heated controversy pitted Forza Italia (FI) against former general Roberto Vannacci, a figure of the far right. The latter published on social media an AI-doctored image of FI Undersecretary of State Matilde Siracusano. The FI leader and Deputy Prime Minister, Antonio Tajani, denounced a "vulgar and unacceptable" attack, illustrating the fractures within the majority's political space (La Repubblica, 26/09).

Furthermore, Mr. Tajani provoked a direct clash with the judicial world by calling on magistrates to be tougher, summing up his thinking with the phrase "strike one to educate a hundred." The National Association of Magistrates (ANM) reacted immediately, accusing the minister of launching a dangerous attack on the rule of law (La Repubblica, 26/09).

Security Alerts: Russian Threat and Espionage Against the Institutions

Italy is facing growing external security threats. US intelligence services (CIA) have warned several European governments, including Rome, about a potential risk of Russian drone attacks that could be launched from ships in the Mediterranean Sea against Italy, France, or Spain (Il Fatto Quotidiano, 24/09). This alert comes in the context of an intensified Russian hybrid war against Europe. According to government sources, Palazzo Chigi is reportedly keeping a daily tally of hostile Russian acts, many of which are not made public (Formiche, 17/09).

As evidence of Italy's involvement on NATO's eastern flank, Italian fighter jets shot down a drone laden with explosives in Lithuania on 15 September. The Minister of Defence, Guido Crosetto, underscored the importance of this presence for the security of the Alliance (AGI, 15/09).

On the domestic front, the conclusion of the investigation into banker Vincenzo Coviello revealed a major security breach at the highest levels of the state. He is accused of having spied on the bank accounts of 3,572 public figures, including President Sergio Mattarella, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and former Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The acts are characterized as an "attack on the institutions" (Corriere della Sera, 15/09).

Social Tensions Against a Backdrop of Economic Crisis

The Italian economy is showing signs of weakness. The Minister of the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, sounded the alarm, stating that "the situation is worsening" (La Stampa, 17/09), while inflation has risen again to reach 3.3% according to ISTAT, driven by energy prices.

The surge in the price of diesel, a consequence of the crisis in the Gulf, is bringing entire swathes of the economy to their knees. Farmers' demonstrations took place in Lazio (Il Fatto Quotidiano, 25/09). Sicilian and Calabrian shipowners, for their part, are threatening to blockade the Strait of Messina on 22 October if the government fails to intervene to cap the price of fuel for professional fishing (AGI, 23/09).

The crisis at the former Ilva steelworks in Taranto continues to weigh on the social agenda. Unions organized a 24-hour strike on 14 September to protest against the risk of 2,500 layoffs linked to the scheduled closure of the site's hot zone at the end of October (Il Sole 24 Ore, 14/09). A new meeting between the government and the unions was held on 15 September at Palazzo Chigi.

Finally, a corruption investigation is casting a shadow over the management of recovery-plan funds (PNRR): a major investment intended for higher education in Bergamo reportedly resulted in an unfinished building, which is the subject of an investigation involving Daniele Nembrini (Corriere della Sera, 24/09).

To Watch

• Early October: Crucial confidence vote in the Chamber of Deputies on the electoral law bill. A failure could trigger a government crisis.
• 8 October: Meeting at the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy (MIMIT) with refining companies to discuss fuel supply difficulties.
• 22 October: Scheduled date for the blockade of the Strait of Messina by fishermen if no solution is found on the price of diesel.