Critical Raw Materials: Multilateralism Yields to Targeted Strategic Alliances

This month, competition for critical raw materials intensifies through the proliferation of bilateral and minilateral agreements, circumventing multilateral frameworks deemed ineffective such as the International Seabed Authority. The United States, Japan, Canada, and the European Union are strengthening their strategic partnerships, while the American administration implements measures to facilitate mining operations on its territory.

Simultaneously, several African producing nations are accelerating their value-chain upgrade strategy. Nigeria is inaugurating multiple lithium processing facilities, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is launching industrial production at the Manono deposit, dominated by Chinese capital. These industrial ambitions, however, encounter significant governance challenges: increased violations of human rights linked to transition minerals, tensions over local content rules in the DRC, and persistence of illegal exploitation in South Africa and Nigeria.

Finally, the race to secure downstream value chains is accelerating. Germany and France are witnessing the emergence of advanced refining and recycling projects to reduce their dependence, notably with respect to China. The latter faces a major structural challenge with the massive influx of end-of-life electric vehicle batteries—an issue that subsidies alone will not resolve.

Resource Geopolitics Circumvents Multilateralism in Favor of Targeted Agreements

The period is marked by a marked acceleration of bilateral strategic partnerships, illustrating growing mistrust of multilateral frameworks for securing mineral access. The ineffectiveness of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which has failed to produce operational rules for deep-sea mining over three decades, is symptomatic of this trend. In response, states such as the United States and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation (MOC) as early as last March to secure access to these resources, an approach intended to circumvent multilateralism deemed paralyzed (justsecurity.org, 18/06). This situation concerns African countries, which fear that deep-sea mining will become a new resource competition battleground and a maritime security issue (Premium Times Nigeria, 07/07).

In this context, Western powers are consolidating their alliances. The European Union and Canada have affirmed their intention to deepen cooperation on critical raw materials, digital trade, defense, and energy, with a summit scheduled in Canada on 29 and 30 October 2026 to operationalize this partnership (European Commission, 15/06). For its part, Canada has also initiated a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia to strengthen energy and mining partnerships, following years of strained diplomatic relations (Al Jazeera English, 09/07).

These "friend-shoring" strategies coexist with more aggressive maneuvers. In the United States, the Trump administration has not only taken measures to open habitats of endangered species to mining, drilling, and agriculture (NYT (Bluesky), 10/07), but is also suspected of orchestrating a one-billion-dollar mining agreement in Kazakhstan, which the administration also separately signed an agreement granting access to tungsten reserves, raising concerns about conflicts of interest (NYT (Bluesky), 28/06). Furthermore, the EU has deployed sanctions tools (adopted 13 July 2026) by prohibiting trade in gold from Sudan as well as exports to Sudan of chemical products used in gold extraction, in order to cut off conflict financing sources (Council of the EU, 13/07).

Africa Accelerates Its Value-Chain Upgrade, but Governance Challenges Persist

Several African countries are displaying their ambition to capture a larger share of the critical minerals value chain. Nigeria is positioning itself as a leader in this trend: President Tinubu inaugurated a lithium processing facility in Nasarawa State, asserting the country's determination to move beyond the export of raw minerals in favor of local industrialization (Premium Times Nigeria, 02/07). This effort was completed by the inauguration of another $200 million lithium extraction facility in Zamfara State on 12 July (Premium Times Nigeria, 12/07).

In parallel, the DRC has entered the industrial lithium production phase at the Manono deposit, presented as the world's largest. The operating company, Manono Lithium, a subsidiary of Chinese group Zijin Mining, announced production of 500,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate by end of June 2026, consolidating Chinese control over a key link in the battery value chain (RFI — Africa, 23/06).

However, these advances are hampered by structural governance challenges and rising ESG risks. A report by the Business and Human Rights Resource Centre, a London-based nonprofit organization, reveals that allegations of human rights violations linked to transition mineral extraction in Africa more than doubled in 2025 (Mail & Guardian, 24/06 ; Daily Maverick, 26/06). This trend materializes on the ground through regulatory and social tensions: * Local content and benefit-sharing: In the DRC, mining companies are seeking to delay implementation of a law requiring them to cede 5% ownership stakes to their Congolese employees (Africa News, 18/06). In Nigeria, the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake, threatened to revoke licenses from companies not honoring agreements with host communities (04/07) (Premium Times Nigeria, 04/07). In Zimbabwe, the lithium boom benefits local populations in a highly unequal manner (Al Jazeera English, 18/06). * Illegal exploitation: Authorities continue their fight against this phenomenon. In South Africa, more than 200 people, predominantly undocumented foreign nationals, were arrested in an operation targeting illegal mining at a gold mine west of Johannesburg (Africa News, 08/07). In Nigeria, authorities closed a mining site in Osun State and arrested several suspects on 13 July (Premium Times Nigeria, 13/07). * Administrative modernization: South Africa unveiled a new digital mining cadastre, currently in testing phase, aimed at streamlining and increasing transparency in permit issuance (Daily Maverick, 15/06).

Refining and Recycling: New Fronts in Strategic Competition

Facing Chinese dominance, Western countries are investing massively in downstream value chain segments. In Germany, the Aurubis group opened a new recycling facility in Hamburg, equipped with technology capable of extracting greater value from metal waste than its competitors, particularly in competing with Chinese enterprises purchasing European scrap at high prices. This investment is a direct response to competition from Chinese enterprises purchasing European scrap at elevated prices (FAZ - Aktuell, 01/07). In France, the cobalt and nickel refining project Emme (Electro Mobility Materials Europe) near Bordeaux illustrates the dual purpose of these investments: initially intended for electric vehicle batteries, the project will also serve the defense industry, underscoring the convergence of civilian and military needs for critical materials (Reporterre, 16/06).

China, despite being dominant, faces its own challenges. The country expects a wave of four million tonnes of end-of-life electric vehicle batteries annually beginning in 2028. The market structure, dominated by low resale-value lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, and competition from an informal sector capturing over 70% of used batteries, as informal recyclers can pay more than subsidized formal recyclers, render public subsidies insufficient to create a viable and profitable recycling sector (dialogue.earth, 08/07).

ESG Regulation Tightens While Operational Risks Remain Elevated

Requirements for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) responsibility continue to strengthen, with direct implications for global supply chains. In the United Kingdom, a bill was introduced on 17 June (Commercial Organisations and Public Authorities Duty Bill [HL]) to impose on commercial organizations and public authorities a duty of reasonable diligence with respect to human rights and the environment across all their operations, subsidiaries, and value chains, accompanied by civil liability, access to justice for victims, a monitoring body, penalties, and criminal sanctions (UK Parliament — Bills, 17/06).

At the same time, operational and environmental risks remain a major concern, particularly in Latin America. A report by Brazil's National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) identified 213 dams in critical condition, of which 55 are mining dams—the sector most at risk in the country. This alert comes as the number of inspectors has declined for the first time since the Brumadinho disaster in 2019 (Agência Brasil, 11/07). In Argentina, San Juan Province faces critical water shortages exacerbated by the advance of mining projects in the Andean Cordillera (Buenos Aires Times, 15/06).