Space Imagery: Earth Observation as a New Instrument of Sovereignty

This month, the space sector's momentum has been defined by the contrast between SpaceX's record financial performance—driven by Starlink and AI—and mounting security and regulatory challenges, epitomized by the uncontrolled crash of one of its rocket stages on the Moon. This event highlights a legal vacuum regarding debris management on other celestial bodies, even as the proliferation of satellite constellations continues to alarm the astronomical community.

Geopolitical competition has crystallized around the use of Earth-observation data. The European Union's decision to delay the release of Copernicus imagery of the Strait of Hormuz by 24 hours, following American pressure, underscores the highly strategic and dual-use nature of these capabilities. In parallel, China has confirmed its ambitions with the successful launch of a reusable rocket and by conducting sea-based launches, while strengthening its technological partnerships—notably with Uzbekistan for an AI-equipped satellite. In response to these developments, established and emerging space powers, from Australia to Africa, are adapting their strategies to bolster their sovereignty and resilience.

SpaceX's Financial Rise Overshadowed by New Space-Safety Questions

SpaceX's trajectory this month illustrates the dual face of NewSpace: dazzling economic growth and the emergence of new systemic risks. The company reported spectacular financial results for its first quarter as a listed company, with revenues of $7.8 billion for the quarter ended 30 June (up from $4.1 billion a year earlier), a 92% year-on-year increase (El Mundo - Economía, 04/08; Rappler, 05/08). This growth is driven by the scaling-up of its Starlink constellation, whose revenues grew by 66%, and by a 250% surge in revenues tied to its artificial-intelligence activities (Rappler, 05/08). The company's valuation and the diversification of its activities confirm the trend of private actors taking on strategic missions once reserved for states (El Mundo - Economía, 11/07).

This industrial power, however, comes with growing concerns. On 5 August, a Falcon 9 rocket stage crashed on the Moon at nearly 8,700 km/h, creating a crater 27 metres in diameter (Il Fatto Quotidiano, 05/08). Although the impact is described as unintentional, it exposes an international regulatory vacuum concerning liability for debris on the lunar surface—a crucial issue at a time when lunar infrastructure projects are multiplying. This problem compounds astronomers' persistent unease, as they see sky observation lastingly compromised by the explosion in the number of satellites in low orbit (RFI France, 16/07). Finally, the competition for control of the radio spectrum is intensifying, pitting actors such as SpaceX against governments in a battle for this increasingly valuable "invisible real estate" (NYT (Bluesky), 01/08), while the American Federal Communications Commission (FCC) seeks to streamline licensing procedures to ease market flows (Above the Law — BigLaw, 27/07).

Earth Observation: Satellite Imagery at the Heart of Geopolitical Tensions

The ability to observe the Earth from space has become a sovereignty issue and an instrument of power, as demonstrated by the handling of Copernicus data relating to the Strait of Hormuz. In late July, the European Union confirmed that it had delayed the release of imagery of this strategic zone by 24 hours, following American pressure and a Council review of "potential threats to European interests" (Clubic, 30/07; Euractiv France, 28/07). This decision illustrates the intrinsic duality of the Copernicus programme—a civilian environmental-monitoring tool but also a major strategic asset whose use can be constrained by geopolitical considerations, thereby calling into question European strategic autonomy.

Meanwhile, the Copernicus programme continues to demonstrate its scientific and civilian value. The Sentinel-1A satellite was retired after 12 years of service, making way for the new generation (1C, 1D), which promises more precise data (Commission européenne, 17/07). Programme data proved essential for tracking the dispersal of ash from the Etna eruption as far as Africa (Corriere della Sera, 08/07) and for quantifying the accelerated melting of glaciers in Kyrgyzstan, whose surface area has shrunk by 33.7% over 70 to 90 years (Times of Central Asia, 03/08). Copernicus also ranked June as the second-hottest ever recorded worldwide, confirming its key role in monitoring climate change (Argus Media, 09/07).

China Accelerates Its Space Race, Driving New Strategic Partnerships

China continues to score significant points in its competition with the United States. The country successfully carried out the launch of a reusable rocket on 10 July, a major technological milestone aimed at reducing costs and increasing launch cadence, following the model proven by SpaceX (cset.georgetown.edu, 10/07; Airforce Technology, 16/07). Moreover, the Chinese firm Orienspace successfully conducted a launch from a sea-based platform, a capability that strengthens military resilience and accelerates the deployment of commercial constellations (Asia Times, 27/07).

Beyond its national capabilities, China is extending its influence through technological partnerships. On 5 August it launched the Earth-observation satellite Samarqand-2028, the fruit of a collaboration between the Chinese company STAR.VISION Aerospace and the Uzbek space agency Uzbekcosmos (Times of Central Asia, 05/08). Notably, Uzbek specialists developed the onboard artificial-intelligence module, marking a first for Uzbekistan and a significant advance in capability, supported by a major strategic partner (Times of Central Asia, 04/08). This cooperation illustrates a new dynamic in which emerging space powers rely on Chinese technology to develop their own capabilities.

Sovereignty and Resilience: Global and Emerging Powers Redefine Their Strategies

Faced with growing dependence on space infrastructure, the question of resilience is becoming central for many states. In Australia, emergency services and military personnel are now training in analogue navigation and communication techniques, such as the use of the sextant and paper charts, in anticipation of a potential failure of satellite systems (The Guardian — Monde, 22/07). This initiative reflects an awareness of the catastrophic consequences a sudden loss of access to GPS services or secure communications would bring.

This quest for sovereignty is also evident on the regulatory and economic front. In Africa, telecommunications ministers gathered in Abuja adopted the "Abuja Declaration on Meaningful Connectivity", affirming the continent's determination to define its own technological rules rather than simply importing them (TechCabal, 28/07). With a mobile digital economy worth $220 billion and the world's youngest population, the African continent intends to weigh in on global governance. Likewise, Brazil is currently negotiating behind closed doors a national policy on critical minerals, essential to the energy transition and to the space sector, in an effort to better capitalize on its strategic reserves, which include 94% of the world's niobium reserves (Agência Pública (Brazil), 16/07). In addition, South Africa is modernizing its national frequency plan to prepare for the 5G Advanced era (Daily Maverick, 03/08).

Institutional and Industrial Europe Confronts Global Competition

In Europe, institutional and private actors are seeking to consolidate their position. Spain has shown strong commitment by planning to allocate up to €2 billion to the IRIS² secure-connectivity constellation, as part of a plan to raise its defence spending to 2.1% of GDP (El Mundo - Economía, 29/07). The country has also secured the continuity of its capabilities by signing, via the operator Hisdesat, a contract with Airbus for the construction of a replacement satellite (Cinco Días, 31/07). France, for its part, reaffirmed at the Assises du NewSpace the importance of the innovative ecosystem to its sovereignty, with the Direction générale de l'armement (DGA) and the Agence de l'innovation de défense (AID) actively supporting dual-use projects such as optical communications and SATCOM antennas (Ministère des Armées, 13/07).

At the pan-European level, the European Space Agency (ESA) is considering creating an autonomous space-data platform by interconnecting existing probes, an initiative that could establish technological standards and meet the needs of the military sector in the face of American solutions (FAZ - Aktuell, 22/07). Private investors are aligning with this trend: the venture-capital fund Lakestar has raised $300 million to specifically support European start-ups developing dual-use technologies, in order to reduce the continent's dependence on American technology (Financial Times, 17/07).

To Watch

• 12 August 2026: A total solar eclipse, the first of an "Eclipse Trio," will be visible notably from Spain. Its corona has been modelled by a supercomputer using data from the SDO (NASA) and Solar Orbiter (ESA) satellites (El Confidencial, 02/08).
• US Congress: The "123 agreement" on civil nuclear power signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia will have to be reviewed by Congress, where it could spark debates on non-proliferation (Il Fatto Quotidiano, 23/07).
• Airport security in Germany: The explosive-drone incident at Leipzig airport, described as a "wake-up call," could accelerate the introduction of new security and regulatory measures against this threat (FAZ - Aktuell, 05/08).
• IRIS² deployment: Spain's €2 billion financial commitment will be an important milestone to track in the implementation of the European constellation (El Mundo - Economía, 29/07).