The Return of the "Super El Niño": Supply Chains Under Climate Stress

This month, the El Niño climate phenomenon reached "very strong" status, triggering a cascade of consequences on a global scale. Forecasts warn of heightened risks of droughts, floods and heatwaves, threatening the food security of millions and already disrupting critical supply chains, notably nickel production in Indonesia and maritime traffic through the Panama Canal. This intensification of climate hazards coincides with a major regulatory rollback in the United States, where the Environmental Protection Agency has repealed emissions limits for power plants.

At the same time, contamination by PFAS ("forever chemicals") is becoming entrenched as a leading industrial and public-health issue, following the revelation that the rise of artificial intelligence is fuelling their production. On the multilateral front, global environmental initiatives are showing signs of weakness: the United Nations fund for nature restoration has raised almost no money one year after its launch, and negotiations for a binding treaty on drought have failed. Finally, Europe is struggling in its transition to a circular economy, with a recycling rate of only 12%, far short of the targets set.

The "Super El Niño" Triggers Global Economic and Humanitarian Disruptions

The period was marked by the intensification of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which on 14 September reached "very strong" status, or even "Super El Niño," after exceeding the 2°C temperature-rise threshold, with the temperature of the central Pacific climbing more than 3°C above average (Al Jazeera English, 15/09; FAZ - Aktuell, 16/09). This phenomenon, expected to peak in early 2027, is already driving extreme weather conditions across the globe.

The economic and humanitarian consequences are already tangible and manifold: * Food security: The World Food Programme (WFP) fears that an additional 49 million people could fall into acute hunger by the end of the year owing to the droughts forecast in South and Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa, and to the torrential rains expected in East Africa and South America (Al Jazeera English, 15/09). * Industrial supply chains: Indonesia, the world's leading nickel producer, is experiencing a drought that has forced Nickel Industries Ltd. to halt the ramp-up of a processing plant due to water shortages (Bloomberg Markets, 15/09). * Global trade: The Panama Canal authority has announced possible further reductions in maritime traffic, which could be limited to 29 vessels per day in February or March 2027, on account of the water shortfall affecting the canal's locks, a strategic chokepoint of international trade (Al Jazeera English, 08/09).

Alongside these droughts, other regions are facing unusual extreme phenomena. A "medicane"—a hurricane-type system rare in the Mediterranean—is forming northeast of Tripoli, Libya, and could affect Greece, northern Libya or northwestern Egypt (Washington Post (Bluesky), 15/09). These events confirm the trend towards an intensification of climate phenomena, with the Copernicus service having also recorded on 24 August a new record for the global average sea-surface temperature (Washington Post (Bluesky), 24/08).

Regulatory Rollback in the United States and Blockages in Environmental Multilateralism

On 15 September, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ended the rule limiting greenhouse-gas emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants, which constitute the country's second-largest source of emissions (Al Jazeera English, 15/09; NYT (Bluesky), 14/09). This decision, taken by the Trump administration according to the New York Times, marks a major break in U.S. climate policy, with significant global implications given the weight of the United States in global emissions.

This unilateral rollback comes against a backdrop of mounting difficulties for multilateral environmental action: * Biodiversity financing: The United Nations Cali Fund, launched in February 2025 to mobilise $1 billion per year, has to date collected only $6,000. This failure is attributed to a lack of visibility and clarity on the disbursement arrangements (Politico EU, 04/09). * Combating desertification: COP17 in Mongolia concluded without reaching a binding agreement on combating drought, owing to divergences over the nature of the commitments and the allocation of responsibilities among countries (Global Government Forum, 07/09). * Plastics treaty: The United States reaffirmed its opposition to binding limits on plastic production within the negotiations for the future global treaty, even seeking to introduce an exemption clause on grounds of "national security" (Washington Post (Bluesky), 24/08).

Pollution, from PFAS to Plastics, Reveals New Facets of the Environmental Crisis

Contamination by "forever chemicals" (PFAS) continues to assert itself as a leading health and regulatory issue. A report by the Swedish NGO ChemSec, published on 13 September, revealed a direct and worrying link between the rise of artificial intelligence and the PFAS industry. The report warns that the majority of the ten leading PFAS producers are expanding their capacity to meet growing demand from AI-related sectors (Reporterre, 14/09). Moreover, a scandal in Croatia illustrates the concrete consequences of this pollution, where thousands of tonnes of hazardous waste containing PFAS were illegally dumped in Gospić, contaminating groundwater and prompting mass protests (EU Observer, 14/09).

Plastic pollution, for its part, is now reaching the most remote corners of the planet. Researchers have discovered plastic bags, packaging and fishing gear as deep as 3,900 metres in an underwater canyon of the South Atlantic (Reporterre, 16/09). Faced with this ubiquity, certain national regulatory initiatives are emerging, as in the United Kingdom, where a draft bill aims to require manufacturers to install microplastic filters on new washing machines (UK Parliament — Bills, 25/08). These efforts contrast with the deadlock observed at the level of international negotiations.

Circular Economy and Resource Management: Europe Struggling, Models Under Debate

Despite lofty political ambitions, Europe's transition towards a circular economy remains "slow," according to a 2023 report by the European Court of Auditors. The latest figures confirm this trend: Europe recycles only 12.2% of the materials it uses, a figure that is stable and far below the 24% target (The Conversation FR, 26/08).

Several recent studies point to the complexity of this transition. A publication dated 6 September suggests that the effectiveness of public policy varies widely: environmental taxation would be more effective in less innovative economies, whereas R&D and education investments would be more relevant for countries already at the cutting edge (OpenAlex — Politiques publiques, 06/09). This analysis calls into question the one-size-fits-all approach and argues for targeted interventions. In addition, trade-union voices are being raised to underscore that there can be no circular economy "without good working conditions," calling for social issues and job quality to be incorporated into future regulations (EU Observer, 15/09).

This European debate is part of a broader questioning of the concept of "green growth." A study analysing 150 years of data for the United Kingdom and 50 years for more than 100 countries concludes that the decoupling of GDP growth from resource consumption is largely overestimated and often temporary, failing to deliver a sufficient reduction in the overall material footprint (Global Government Forum, 18/08).

What to Watch

• Early 2027: The El Niño phenomenon is expected to reach its peak intensity, with a risk of worsening extreme weather conditions and their economic and humanitarian impacts (Al Jazeera English, 15/09). 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded (FAZ - Aktuell, 16/09).
• February–March 2027: The Panama Canal authority could impose new traffic restrictions, reducing passage to 29 vessels per day, depending on how the drought evolves (Al Jazeera English, 08/09).
• 2027: The debate on a global agreement to combat drought is expected to continue at the next United Nations summit on desertification, to be held in Egypt (Global Government Forum, 07/09).